This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026??
Current odds: <5 50%, 5-6 44%, 7-8 1%, >16 1%, 9-10 0%, 11-12 0%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
<5 is the market favorite at 50%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $512K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026??
$512K has been traded on this market in total, including $3K in the last 24 hours, with $14K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026? resolve?
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary
Where can I bet on How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.