As of today the market prices Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by... at 21% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...? odds
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...??
The market currently prices this at 21% (21¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?
October 31, 2026 is the market favorite at 21%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $5K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...??
$5K has been traded on this market in total, including $2K in the last 24 hours, with $546 of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on November 1, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 P
Where can I bet on Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.