How low will Lake Powell drop?

Above 3,510 ft leads at 86% across 4 outcomes, with $72K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

How low will Lake Powell drop? odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
Above 3,510 ft86%86¢$25K
3,500–3,510 ft11%11¢$38K
Below 3,490 ft1%1¢$4K
3,490–3,500 ft0%0¢$5K

Market details

Resolution rules

This market resolves based on the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam) between market creation and March 31, 2027, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for How low will Lake Powell drop??
Current odds: Above 3,510 ft 86%, 3,500–3,510 ft 11%, Below 3,490 ft 1%, 3,490–3,500 ft 0%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in How low will Lake Powell drop?
Above 3,510 ft is the market favorite at 86%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $72K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on How low will Lake Powell drop??
$72K has been traded on this market in total, including $3K in the last 24 hours, with $16K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does How low will Lake Powell drop? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on April 16, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does How low will Lake Powell drop? resolve?
This market resolves based on the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam) between market creation and March 31, 2027, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowe
Where can I bet on How low will Lake Powell drop?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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