How low will Lake Mead drop?

Below 1,028 ft leads at 52% across 4 outcomes, with $23K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

How low will Lake Mead drop? odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
Below 1,028 ft52%52¢$11K
1,028–1,033 ft46%46¢$6K
1,033–1,038 ft14%14¢$2K
Above 1,038 ft6%6¢$5K

Market details

Resolution rules

This market resolves based on the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam) between market creation and March 31, 2027, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for How low will Lake Mead drop??
Current odds: Below 1,028 ft 52%, 1,028–1,033 ft 46%, 1,033–1,038 ft 14%, Above 1,038 ft 6%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in How low will Lake Mead drop?
Below 1,028 ft is the market favorite at 52%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $23K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on How low will Lake Mead drop??
$23K has been traded on this market in total, with $826 of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does How low will Lake Mead drop? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on April 16, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does How low will Lake Mead drop? resolve?
This market resolves based on the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam) between market creation and March 31, 2027, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elev
Where can I bet on How low will Lake Mead drop?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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