How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in November?
Below 4.59% leads at 69% across 9 outcomes, with $2K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in November? odds
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 3, 2026 and November 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of November 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of November 2026 by December 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in November??
Current odds: Below 4.59% 69%, Below 4.56% 55%, Below 4.53% 53%, Below 4.50% 46%, Below 4.47% 40%, Below 4.44% 34%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in November?
Below 4.59% is the market favorite at 69%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $2K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in November??
$2K has been traded on this market in total, including $241 in the last 24 hours, with $1K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in November? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 1, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in November? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 3, 2026 and November 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of November 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of November 2026 by December 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr
Where can I bet on How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in November?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.