As of today the market prices Another Fed rate hike in 2026 at 77% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Another Fed rate hike in 2026??
The market currently prices this at 77% (77¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? is the market favorite at 77%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $1.1M through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Another Fed rate hike in 2026??
$1.1M has been traded on this market in total, including $7K in the last 24 hours, with $268K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Another Fed rate hike in 2026? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 10, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Another Fed rate hike in 2026? resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December
Where can I bet on Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.