December Meeting leads at 8% across 3 outcomes, with $3.5M traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Fed rate cut by...??
Current odds: December Meeting 8%, October Meeting 4%, September Meeting 0%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Fed rate cut by...?
December Meeting is the market favorite at 8%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $3.5M through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Fed rate cut by...??
$3.5M has been traded on this market in total, including $23K in the last 24 hours, with $347K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Fed rate cut by...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 8, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Fed rate cut by...? resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reportin
Where can I bet on Fed rate cut by...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.