As of today the market prices Ebola: new country confirmed before October 1 at 55% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
Ebola: new country confirmed before October 1? odds
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Ebola: new country confirmed before October 1??
The market currently prices this at 55% (55¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Ebola: new country confirmed before October 1?
Ebola: new country confirmed before October 1? is the market favorite at 55%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $233 through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Ebola: new country confirmed before October 1??
$233 has been traded on this market in total, with $35 of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Ebola: new country confirmed before October 1? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on October 2, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Ebola: new country confirmed before October 1? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary
Where can I bet on Ebola: new country confirmed before October 1?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.