As of today the market prices Another pneumonic plague case in Russia by... at 2% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
Another pneumonic plague case in Russia by...? odds
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a confirmed case of pneumonic plague in a human is reported in the Russian Federation at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Moscow time, . Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "confirmed case" is a case explicitly identified by a qualifying source as laboratory-confirmed Yersinia pestis infection with pneumonic (pulmonary) involvement, or explicitly announced as a confirmed pneumonic plague case. Publication of the underlying laboratory results is not required. A bubonic or septicemic case that progresses to pneumonic plague qualifies. A case reported only as "plague" with no form specified, and a case described only as suspected or probable, do not qualify.
The case must be distinct from the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute employee who reportedly passed away on October 1, 2026; subsequent confirmation, reclassification, or post-mortem testing of that patient will not qualify. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation, not the date of exposure, symptom onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Russian federal or regional public health authorities and the WHO; however a consensus of credible sources will also suffice.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Another pneumonic plague case in Russia by...??
The market currently prices this at 2% (2¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Another pneumonic plague case in Russia by...?
October 31, 2026 is the market favorite at 2%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $99K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Another pneumonic plague case in Russia by...??
$99K has been traded on this market in total, including $30 in the last 24 hours, with $4K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Another pneumonic plague case in Russia by...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on November 1, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Another pneumonic plague case in Russia by...? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a confirmed case of pneumonic plague in a human is reported in the Russian Federation at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Moscow time, . Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "confirmed case" is a case explicitly identified by a qualifying source as laboratory-confirmed Yersinia pestis infection with pneumonic (pulmonary) involvement, or explicitly announced as a confirmed pneumonic plague case. Publication of the underlying laboratory results is not required. A bubonic or septicemic case that progresses to pneumonic plague qualifies. A case reported only as "plague" with no form specified, and a case described
Where can I bet on Another pneumonic plague case in Russia by...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.