1 million American kids get SpaceX shares by December 31, 2027?
As of today the market prices 1 million American kids get SpaceX shares by December 31, 2027 at 94% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
1 million American kids get SpaceX shares by December 31, 2027? odds
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1 million American kids get SpaceX shares by December 31, 2027?
On October 19, 2026, Elon Musk announced that next year he would give one of his SpaceX shares to every child in America. (see: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/19/elon-musk-spacex-shares-giveaway-kids.html)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one million children in the United States have received at least one share of SpaceX stock from Elon Musk by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "child" is any individual who is under 18 years of age and resides in the United States on the date the share is received. A child who turns 18 after receiving a share will continue to count.
A child will be considered to have "received" a share once at least one whole share has been transferred to and is held by or for the benefit of that child, including in a brokerage account, custodial account (such as a UTMA/UGMA account), or trust in the child's name or for the child's benefit. Announcements, pledges, registrations, sign-ups, or allocations of shares that have not yet been transferred will not qualify. Fractional shares, tokenized shares, or other synthetic exposure to SpaceX will not qualify.
Shares will be considered to be "from Elon Musk" if they are distributed by Elon Musk personally or by any person or legal entity acting on his behalf or at his direction, or funded by him for this purpose, including a trust, foundation, SpaceX itself, or another company or third-party administrator implementing the distribution. Shares distributed under a program that was not initiated or funded by Elon Musk will not qualify.
The equity must be in Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SpaceX). Any class or type of equity will qualify, including preferred or common stock.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for 1 million American kids get SpaceX shares by December 31, 2027??
The market currently prices this at 94% (94¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will 1 million American kids get SpaceX shares by December 31, 2027?
1 million American kids get SpaceX shares by December 31, 2027? is the market favorite at 94%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $4K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on 1 million American kids get SpaceX shares by December 31, 2027??
$4K has been traded on this market in total, including $827 in the last 24 hours, with $3K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does 1 million American kids get SpaceX shares by December 31, 2027? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does 1 million American kids get SpaceX shares by December 31, 2027? resolve?
On October 19, 2026, Elon Musk announced that next year he would give one of his SpaceX shares to every child in America. (see: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/19/elon-musk-spacex-shares-giveaway-kids.html)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one million children in the United States have received at least one share of SpaceX stock from Elon Musk by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "child" is any individual who is under 18 years of age and resides in the United States on the date the share is received. A child who turns 18 after receiving a share will continue to count.
A child will be considered to have "received" a share once at least
Where can I bet on 1 million American kids get SpaceX shares by December 31, 2027?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.