As of today the market prices 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026 at 7% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026??
The market currently prices this at 7% (7¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? is the market favorite at 7%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $120K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026??
$120K has been traded on this market in total, including $838 in the last 24 hours, with $7K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 1, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates b
Where can I bet on 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.