Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
As of today the market prices Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27) at 93% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)? odds
Outcome
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Price
Volume
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)??
The market currently prices this at 93% (93¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)? is the market favorite at 93%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $3K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)??
$3K has been traded on this market in total, including $40 in the last 24 hours, with $1K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on April 1, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)? resolve?
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RON
Where can I bet on Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.