Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?
Central US (SPP) leads at 10% across 6 outcomes, with $26K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1? odds
This event tracks whether each listed U.S. regional grid operator declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) from this event's creation through that market's deadline of 11:59 PM local time on September 30, 2026. Each regional market resolves independently to "Yes" or "No" under its own operator, sources, and rules shown on that market, and more than one market may resolve "Yes".
Each market is confirmed by any official communication from the relevant grid operator — its newsroom or press releases (linked in that market's rules), market or grid notices, or real-time system-status postings — or by credible national news reporting. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify in any market. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify in any market. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1??
Current odds: Central US (SPP) 10%, New York (NYISO) 8%, Texas (ERCOT) 6%, California (CAISO) 3%, Mid-Atlantic (PJM) 3%, New England (ISO-NE) 3%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?
Central US (SPP) is the market favorite at 10%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $26K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1??
$26K has been traded on this market in total, including $1K in the last 24 hours, with $4K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on October 2, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1? resolve?
This event tracks whether each listed U.S. regional grid operator declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) from this event's creation through that market's deadline of 11:59 PM local time on September 30, 2026. Each regional market resolves independently to "Yes" or "No" under its own operator, sources, and rules shown on that market, and more than one market may resolve "Yes".
Each market is confirmed by any official communication from the relevant grid operator — its newsroom or press releases (linked in that market's rules), market or grid notices, or real-time system-status postings — or by credible national news reporting. A lower EEA-1 declaration d
Where can I bet on Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.