Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
As of today the market prices Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026 at 4% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026? odds
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Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026??
The market currently prices this at 4% (4¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026? is the market favorite at 4%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $3K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026??
$3K has been traded on this market in total, including $7 in the last 24 hours, with $4K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026? resolve?
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitud
Where can I bet on Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.