Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?

Justin Gaethje leads at 89% across 12 outcomes, with $765K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026? odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
Justin Gaethje89%89¢$59K
Arman Tsarukyan7%7¢$49K
Ilia Topuria1%1¢$25K
Charles Oliveira0%0¢$12K
Max Holloway0%0¢$21K
Paddy Pimblett0%0¢$532K
Dan Hooker0%0¢$2K
Mateusz Gamrot0%0¢$2K
Benoît Saint Denis0%0¢$54K
Rafael Fiziev0%0¢$2K
Renato Moicano0%0¢$2K
Mauricio Ruffy0%0¢$5K

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026??
Current odds: Justin Gaethje 89%, Arman Tsarukyan 7%, Ilia Topuria 1%, Charles Oliveira 0%, Max Holloway 0%, Paddy Pimblett 0%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?
Justin Gaethje is the market favorite at 89%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $765K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026??
$765K has been traded on this market in total, including $302 in the last 24 hours, with $46K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026? resolve?
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Where can I bet on Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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