Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

Hodge Conjecture leads at 36% across 6 outcomes, with $277K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next? odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
Hodge Conjecture36%36¢$87K
No solution by Dec 31, 202735%35¢$85K
Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer17%17¢$39K
Yang-Mills10%10¢$27K
P versus NP2%2¢$15K
Riemann Hypothesis2%2¢$24K

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the first qualifying Millennium Prize Problem for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no eligible AI lab announces a solution to a qualifying problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No solution by Dec 31, 2027". If solutions to two or more qualifying problems are announced on the same calendar day (ET), this market will resolve to the problem whose name, as listed below, comes first in alphabetical order. The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order, the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next??
Current odds: Hodge Conjecture 36%, No solution by Dec 31, 2027 35%, Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer 17%, Yang-Mills 10%, P versus NP 2%, Riemann Hypothesis 2%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
Hodge Conjecture is the market favorite at 36%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $277K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next??
$277K has been traded on this market in total, including $903 in the last 24 hours, with $48K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next? resolve?
This market will resolve according to the first qualifying Millennium Prize Problem for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no eligible AI lab announces a solution to a qualifying problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No solution by Dec 31, 2027". If solutions to two or more qualifying problems are announced on the same calendar day (ET), this market will resolve to the problem whose name, as listed below, comes first in alphabetical order. The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order, the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and the Yang-Mills
Where can I bet on Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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