October 20 leads at 31% across 14 outcomes, with $157K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...??
Current odds: October 20 31%, October 22 21%, No release by October 31 17%, October 27 11%, October 21 8%, October 23 4%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
October 20 is the market favorite at 31%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $157K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...??
$157K has been traded on this market in total, including $25K in the last 24 hours, with $37K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on November 1, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...? resolve?
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
Where can I bet on Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.