Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?

Hodge Conjecture leads at 62% across 14 outcomes, with $2K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

Which math problems will AI solve in 2026? odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
Hodge Conjecture62%62¢$1K
Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer59%59¢$75
Legendre's Conjecture50%50¢
Odd Perfect Number32%32¢
Hadamard Matrix Conjecture31%31¢$38
Collatz Conjecture30%30¢$24
Strong Goldbach Conjecture30%30¢
Ramsey Number R(5,5)30%30¢$19
Yang-Mills28%28¢
Hadwiger-Nelson Problem28%28¢
Beal's Conjecture28%28¢
Riemann Hypothesis27%27¢$212
Twin Prime Conjecture26%26¢$60
P versus NP6%6¢$237

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an eligible AI lab announces a solution to the problem specified in the title by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem specified in the title has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from the Clay Mathematics Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Which math problems will AI solve in 2026??
Current odds: Hodge Conjecture 62%, Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer 59%, Legendre's Conjecture 50%, Odd Perfect Number 32%, Hadamard Matrix Conjecture 31%, Collatz Conjecture 30%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?
Hodge Conjecture is the market favorite at 62%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $2K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Which math problems will AI solve in 2026??
$2K has been traded on this market in total, including $1K in the last 24 hours, with $4K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Which math problems will AI solve in 2026? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Which math problems will AI solve in 2026? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an eligible AI lab announces a solution to the problem specified in the title by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem specified in the title has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used t
Where can I bet on Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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