Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Anthropic leads at 44% across 14 outcomes, with $242K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31? odds
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31??
Current odds: Anthropic 44%, OpenAI 11%, Meta 11%, xAI 5%, Baidu 4%, Alibaba 3%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Anthropic is the market favorite at 44%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $242K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31??
$242K has been traded on this market in total, including $962 in the last 24 hours, with $46K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the
Where can I bet on Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.