What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
Over 2.5 leads at 67% across 5 outcomes, with $36K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño? odds
This market resolves based on the peak RONI — the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as published in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms.
This market may resolve immediately once NOAA has published a RONI value that determines the peak: the "Over 2.5" outcome resolves "Yes" as soon as any listed season reaches +2.5°C or above. Any other outcome will not be confirmed until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value, since RONI can still rise in a later season and DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño??
Current odds: Over 2.5 67%, 2.25–2.5 27%, 2.0–2.25 4%, Under 1.5 0%, 1.5–2.0 0%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
Over 2.5 is the market favorite at 67%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $36K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño??
$36K has been traded on this market in total, including $4K in the last 24 hours, with $6K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on April 1, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño? resolve?
This market resolves based on the peak RONI — the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as published in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms.
This market may resolve immediately once NOAA has published a RONI value that determines the peak: the "Over 2.5" outcome resolves "Yes" as soon as any listed season reaches +2.5°C or above. Any other outcome will not be confirmed until NOAA publishes
Where can I bet on What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.