As of today the market prices US x Cuba economic deal by... at 40% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
Only deals which are officially announced by both parties will qualify . Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for US x Cuba economic deal by...??
The market currently prices this at 40% (40¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will US x Cuba economic deal by...?
December 31 is the market favorite at 40%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $424K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on US x Cuba economic deal by...??
$424K has been traded on this market in total, including $999 in the last 24 hours, with $6K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does US x Cuba economic deal by...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on June 30, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does US x Cuba economic deal by...? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include
Where can I bet on US x Cuba economic deal by...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.