US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

As of today the market prices US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026 at 11% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?11%11¢$26K

Market details

Resolution rules

This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that directly has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to a major Chinese AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No". A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a removal of general public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify. "Major Chinese AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: DeepSeek, Baidu (ERNIE), Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, MiniMax, Tencent (Hunyuan) and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify. The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major Chinese AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action. The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major Chinese model by the resolution date, will not qualify. The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026??
The market currently prices this at 11% (11¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? is the market favorite at 11%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $26K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026??
$26K has been traded on this market in total, including $198 in the last 24 hours, with $7K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? resolve?
This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that directly has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to a major Chinese AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No". A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a removal of general public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general re
Where can I bet on US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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