Third-best AI Lab end of December?

Meta leads at 51% across 21 outcomes, with $46K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

Third-best AI Lab end of December? odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
Meta51%51¢$14K
Anthropic12%12¢$10K
Google10%10¢$7K
Alibaba10%10¢$1K
Baidu8%8¢$1K
Moonshot6%6¢$4K
DeepSeek4%4¢$573
Tencent4%4¢$417
OpenAI3%3¢$558
Z.ai3%3¢$561
Xiaomi3%3¢$649
Thinky3%3¢$544
ByteDance2%2¢$545
SpaceXAI1%1¢$922
Mistral1%1¢$545

6 more outcomes on the full market page.

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Third-best AI Lab end of December??
Current odds: Meta 51%, Anthropic 12%, Google 10%, Alibaba 10%, Baidu 8%, Moonshot 6%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Third-best AI Lab end of December?
Meta is the market favorite at 51%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $46K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Third-best AI Lab end of December??
$46K has been traded on this market in total, including $429 in the last 24 hours, with $52K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Third-best AI Lab end of December? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Third-best AI Lab end of December? resolve?
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s che
Where can I bet on Third-best AI Lab end of December?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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