June 30, 2027 leads at 86% across 3 outcomes, with $6K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
If the SpaceX Starship successfully launches from a launch pad in Florida by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any renaming of the Starship vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceX, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for SpaceX Starship Florida Launch by…??
Current odds: June 30, 2027 86%, December 31, 2026 43%, August 31, 2026 2%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in SpaceX Starship Florida Launch by…?
June 30, 2027 is the market favorite at 86%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $6K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on SpaceX Starship Florida Launch by…??
$6K has been traded on this market in total, including $996 in the last 24 hours, with $9K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does SpaceX Starship Florida Launch by…? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on June 30, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does SpaceX Starship Florida Launch by…? resolve?
If the SpaceX Starship successfully launches from a launch pad in Florida by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any renaming of the Starship vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceX, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be us
Where can I bet on SpaceX Starship Florida Launch by…?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.