As of today the market prices Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by... at 77% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that a Biologics License Application (BLA) for intismeran autogene has been submitted to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), or that the FDA has accepted such an application for review, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program.
A qualifying application must seek FDA licensure of intismeran autogene through a Biologics License Application (BLA). An original BLA or a resubmission of such a BLA following FDA action will qualify. The application may cover any indication.
A qualifying announcement must come from the relevant company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof.
The submission must already have occurred at the time of the statement. A statement of intent, plan, guidance, or expected timing will not qualify.
If the FDA grants approval of intismeran autogene on or before June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes", whether or not a submission was separately disclosed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from the company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...??
The market currently prices this at 77% (77¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...?
June 30, 2027? is the market favorite at 77%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $90K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...??
$90K has been traded on this market in total, including $270 in the last 24 hours, with $7K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on July 1, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that a Biologics License Application (BLA) for intismeran autogene has been submitted to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), or that the FDA has accepted such an application for review, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA
Where can I bet on Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.