As of today the market prices Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad at 4% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a human case of pneumonic plague outside the Russian Federation is confirmed and established as epidemiologically linked to the outbreak associated with the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "confirmed case" is a case explicitly identified by a qualifying source as laboratory-confirmed Yersinia pestis infection with pneumonic (pulmonary) involvement, or explicitly announced as a confirmed pneumonic plague case. A bubonic or septicemic case that progresses to pneumonic plague qualifies.
An epidemiological link means a qualifying source states that the case acquired its infection from a person, animal, sample or material connected to the Irkutsk outbreak, or that the case travelled from Irkutsk Oblast within the incubation period and is being investigated as part of that outbreak.
Resolution is based on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation and the link, not the date of exposure, symptom onset or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the WHO and the national public health authority of the country reporting the case; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad??
The market currently prices this at 4% (4¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?
Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad? is the market favorite at 4%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $125K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad??
$125K has been traded on this market in total, including $375 in the last 24 hours, with $6K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad? resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a human case of pneumonic plague outside the Russian Federation is confirmed and established as epidemiologically linked to the outbreak associated with the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "confirmed case" is a case explicitly identified by a qualifying source as laboratory-confirmed Yersinia pestis infection with pneumonic (pulmonary) involvement, or explicitly announced as a confirmed pneumonic plague case. A bubonic or septicemic case that progresses to pneumonic plague qualifies.
An epidemiological link means a qualifying source states that the case acquired it
Where can I bet on Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.