OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize?
As of today the market prices OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize at 66% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize? odds
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OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize Solution?
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has solved a qualifying Millennium Prize Problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET before Anthropic does so. This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has solved a qualifying Millennium Prize Problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET before OpenAI does so.
If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50. A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.
The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the company, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the company's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize??
The market currently prices this at 66% (66¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize?
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize Solution? is the market favorite at 66%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $2K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize??
$2K has been traded on this market in total, including $758 in the last 24 hours, with $597 of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize? resolve?
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has solved a qualifying Millennium Prize Problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET before Anthropic does so. This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has solved a qualifying Millennium Prize Problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET before OpenAI does so.
If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50. A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the r
Where can I bet on OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.