November 9 leads at 29% across 25 outcomes, with $34K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...??
Current odds: November 9 29%, November 12 23%, November 10 21%, November 18 21%, November 11 19%, November 13 14%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
November 9 is the market favorite at 29%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $34K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...??
$34K has been traded on this market in total, including $6K in the last 24 hours, with $36K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 1, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...? resolve?
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
Where can I bet on Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.