As of today the market prices China ballistic missile launch by December 31 at 18% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
China ballistic missile launch by December 31? odds
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for China ballistic missile launch by December 31??
The market currently prices this at 18% (18¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
China ballistic missile launch by December 31? is the market favorite at 18%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $6K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on China ballistic missile launch by December 31??
$6K has been traded on this market in total, including $277 in the last 24 hours, with $3K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does China ballistic missile launch by December 31? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does China ballistic missile launch by December 31? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitor
Where can I bet on China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.