Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?

↑ 1520 leads at 62% across 7 outcomes, with $126K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31? odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
↑ 152062%62¢$1K
↑ 153032%32¢$2K
↑ 154020%20¢$596
↑ 155019%19¢$46K
↑ 160011%11¢$22K
↑ 16508%$9K
↑ 17004%$9K

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31??
Current odds: ↑ 1520 62%, ↑ 1530 32%, ↑ 1540 20%, ↑ 1550 19%, ↑ 1600 11%, ↑ 1650 8%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
↑ 1520 is the market favorite at 62%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $126K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31??
$126K has been traded on this market in total, including $5K in the last 24 hours, with $15K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Where can I bet on Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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