As of today the market prices Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3 at 9% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 2 '26 is lower than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 3 '26.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 2 '26 is higher than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 3 '26.
If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3??
The market currently prices this at 9% (9¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3?
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3? is the market favorite at 9%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $112K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3??
$112K has been traded on this market in total, including $112K in the last 24 hours, with $47K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on October 3, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 2 '26 is lower than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 3 '26.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 2 '26 is higher than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 3 '26.
If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices curre
Where can I bet on Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.