As of today the market prices Anthropic lab leak by... at 8% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a pathogen developed, modified, or handled at a wet lab operated by Anthropic is confirmed to have escaped that facility between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Confirmation that the pathogen escaped the laboratory, research facility, diagnostic facility, or other controlled laboratory setting in which it was contained is required.
Investigations, speculation, statements that an escape is possible or has not been ruled out, or statements unverified by a consensus of credible reporting will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Anthropic lab leak by...??
The market currently prices this at 8% (8¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Anthropic lab leak by...?
June 30, 2027 is the market favorite at 8%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $163K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Anthropic lab leak by...??
$163K has been traded on this market in total, including $1K in the last 24 hours, with $44K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Anthropic lab leak by...? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on July 1, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Anthropic lab leak by...? resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a pathogen developed, modified, or handled at a wet lab operated by Anthropic is confirmed to have escaped that facility between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Confirmation that the pathogen escaped the laboratory, research facility, diagnostic facility, or other controlled laboratory setting in which it was contained is required.
Investigations, speculation, statements that an escape is possible or has not been ruled out, or statements unverified by a consensus of credible reporting will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reportin
Where can I bet on Anthropic lab leak by...?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.