Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31?
As of today the market prices Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31 at 27% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31? odds
Outcome
Chance
Price
Volume
Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Argentina makes Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Statements from Peter Thiel indicating intent to seek citizenship from Argentina will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". Statements from Argentina or its representatives indicating vague or conditional intent to make Peter Thiel a citizen will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Only Argentina's actually making Peter Thiel a citizen will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Honorary citizenship will qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
This market will resolve according to statements from representatives of Argentina or Peter Thiel. This market may also resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31??
The market currently prices this at 27% (27¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31?
Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31? is the market favorite at 27%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $986 through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31??
$986 has been traded on this market in total, including $1 in the last 24 hours, with $251 of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Argentina makes Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Statements from Peter Thiel indicating intent to seek citizenship from Argentina will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". Statements from Argentina or its representatives indicating vague or conditional intent to make Peter Thiel a citizen will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Only Argentina's actually making Peter Thiel a citizen will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Honorary citizenship will qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
This market will resolve according to statements from represe
Where can I bet on Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.