Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?

Mariah Carey leads at 94% across 23 outcomes, with $191K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year? odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
Mariah Carey94%94¢$6K
Morgan Wallen25%25¢$585
SZA25%25¢$2K
Kendrick Lamar22%22¢$6K
Post Malone22%22¢$3K
Travis Scott21%21¢$6K
A$AP Rocky18%18¢$3K
Sabrina Carpenter17%17¢$3K
Luke Combs16%16¢$4K
Jack Harlow15%15¢$11K
Doja Cat13%13¢$12K
Future12%12¢$7K
The Weeknd12%12¢$6K
Zach Bryan11%11¢$2K
Rihanna9%9¢$2K

8 more outcomes on the full market page.

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart. Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026. Updates or revisions made within this market’s timeframe to the #1-ranked song on previously published Billboard Hot 100 charts will be considered; however, such updates will not disqualify a previously published Billboard Hot 100 #1 song from counting. If a Billboard Hot 100 #1 song is revised after initial publication, both the originally published #1 song and the revised #1 song will count for this market. Updates or revisions made after the release of the final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs charts published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ and through other official Billboard channels.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year??
Current odds: Mariah Carey 94%, Morgan Wallen 25%, SZA 25%, Kendrick Lamar 22%, Post Malone 22%, Travis Scott 21%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?
Mariah Carey is the market favorite at 94%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $191K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year??
$191K has been traded on this market in total, including $614 in the last 24 hours, with $12K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year? resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed
Where can I bet on Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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