Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?

Mariah Carey leads at 89% across 23 outcomes, with $160K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year? odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
Mariah Carey89%89¢$2K
Kendrick Lamar54%54¢$4K
Morgan Wallen54%54¢$352
Sabrina Carpenter54%54¢$430
Peso Pluma50%50¢
Playboi Carti49%49¢$7K
SZA49%49¢$386
Post Malone47%47¢$357
Rihanna45%45¢$700
Zach Bryan34%34¢$854
The Weeknd32%32¢$5K
Tyler, The Creator25%25¢$560
Billie Eilish24%24¢$40K
Jack Harlow21%21¢$9K
Travis Scott21%21¢$5K

8 more outcomes on the full market page.

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart. Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026. Updates or revisions made within this market’s timeframe to the #1-ranked song on previously published Billboard Hot 100 charts will be considered; however, such updates will not disqualify a previously published Billboard Hot 100 #1 song from counting. If a Billboard Hot 100 #1 song is revised after initial publication, both the originally published #1 song and the revised #1 song will count for this market. Updates or revisions made after the release of the final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs charts published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ and through other official Billboard channels.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year??
Current odds: Mariah Carey 89%, Kendrick Lamar 54%, Morgan Wallen 54%, Sabrina Carpenter 54%, Peso Pluma 50%, Playboi Carti 49%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?
Mariah Carey is the market favorite at 89%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $160K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year??
$160K has been traded on this market in total, including $24 in the last 24 hours, with $3K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year? resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed
Where can I bet on Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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