Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) leads at 57% across 4 outcomes, with $59K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for US economic state at the end of 2026??
Current odds: Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 57%, Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 24%, Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 9%, Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 3%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in US economic state at the end of 2026?
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) is the market favorite at 57%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $59K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on US economic state at the end of 2026??
$59K has been traded on this market in total, including $2K in the last 24 hours, with $11K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does US economic state at the end of 2026? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 31, 2027. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does US economic state at the end of 2026? resolve?
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027,
Where can I bet on US economic state at the end of 2026?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.