Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in August

No change leads at 83% across 5 outcomes, with $58K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in August odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
No change83%83¢$28K
25 bps increase15%15¢$20K
25 bps decrease2%2¢$5K
50+ bps increase1%1¢$3K
50+ bps decrease0%0¢$3K

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 10-11, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in August?
Current odds: No change 83%, 25 bps increase 15%, 25 bps decrease 2%, 50+ bps increase 1%, 50+ bps decrease 0%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in August?
No change is the market favorite at 83%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $58K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in August?
$58K has been traded on this market in total, including $17K in the last 24 hours, with $37K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in August resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on August 11, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in August resolve?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 10-11, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant d
Where can I bet on Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in August?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

Track every Polymarket market on the markets page, or see who is trading them on the leaderboard.