Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?

1480+ leads at 88% across 5 outcomes, with $60K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut? odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
1480+88%88¢$8K
1490+84%84¢$11K
1495+54%54¢$13K
1500+39%39¢$14K
1510+8%8¢$15K

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Gemini model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-2.5-pro, gemini-3-pro, or gemini-3.1-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut??
Current odds: 1480+ 88%, 1490+ 84%, 1495+ 54%, 1500+ 39%, 1510+ 8%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
1480+ is the market favorite at 88%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $60K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut??
$60K has been traded on this market in total, including $5K in the last 24 hours, with $11K of resting liquidity in the order book.
How does Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut? resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Gemini model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-2.5-pro, gemini-3-pro, or gemini-3.1-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will
Where can I bet on Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

Related tech markets

All Tech markets on Polymarket →

Track every Polymarket market on the markets page, or see who is trading them on the leaderboard.