ECB Interest Rates: September 2026

25 bps increase leads at 80% across 5 outcomes, with $147K traded so far. Prices are live probabilities set by traders on Polymarket, not editorial predictions.

ECB Interest Rates: September 2026 odds

OutcomeChancePriceVolume
25 bps increase80%80¢$46K
No change17%17¢$41K
50+ bps increase3%3¢$24K
50+ bps decrease0%0¢$14K
25 bps decrease0%0¢$22K

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for ECB Interest Rates: September 2026?
Current odds: 25 bps increase 80%, No change 17%, 50+ bps increase 3%, 50+ bps decrease 0%, 25 bps decrease 0%. Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome, and updates continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Who is favored in ECB Interest Rates: September 2026?
25 bps increase is the market favorite at 80%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $147K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on ECB Interest Rates: September 2026?
$147K has been traded on this market in total, including $2K in the last 24 hours, with $34K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does ECB Interest Rates: September 2026 resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on September 10, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does ECB Interest Rates: September 2026 resolve?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate
Where can I bet on ECB Interest Rates: September 2026?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.

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