As of today the market prices ChatGPT Full Outage by August 31 at 39% — that is what traders are paying, in real money, for a share that pays $1.00 if it happens.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for ChatGPT Full Outage by August 31??
The market currently prices this at 39% (39¢ per share). Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell on Polymarket.
Will ChatGPT Full Outage by August 31?
ChatGPT Full Outage by August 31? is the market favorite at 39%, based on real money wagered by traders who have moved $5K through this market. Prediction-market odds have historically tracked outcomes more closely than polls, but they are a forecast, not a guarantee.
How much money is on ChatGPT Full Outage by August 31??
$5K has been traded on this market in total, including $556 in the last 24 hours, with $2K of resting liquidity in the order book.
When does ChatGPT Full Outage by August 31? resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on August 31, 2026. Winning shares pay out $1.00 each; losing shares expire worthless.
How does ChatGPT Full Outage by August 31? resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other is
Where can I bet on ChatGPT Full Outage by August 31?
This is a Polymarket prediction market — you trade YES/NO shares against other users rather than against a bookmaker. Polynter.net tracks the odds, volume and trader activity; trading itself happens on Polymarket.